Charlie Kirk: A Shot Heard Across America, The Ballistic Examination

I began writing this blog with a heavy heart, not just because of the loss of Mr. Kirk, but for his family, for his daughters growing up without their dad, for his wife who lost her best friend, her soul mate, her protector, her husband! For his friends, coworkers, and America.

Charlie stood for Christian values, family, friends, and the Constitution. He firmly believed that our right to free speech is not granted by the Constitution but is a natural, God-given right inherent to every human being. The Constitution was established to limit government power, not the rights of the people. Charlie was a strong advocate for the First Amendment, which guarantees freedom of speech, religion, the press, and the right to assemble and petition the government peacefully. His life's work reflects these beliefs throughout.

I have come across numerous comments on social media regarding how the [unnamed] was trained, with many asserting that this was a difficult shot. Some of these comments come from self-proclaimed "experienced" shooters, and I've even heard that a trained sniper stated this shot was not easy. Rumors are suggesting that the [unnamed] might have had military training, implying that making a shot from that distance would require expert skills. However, the reality is different: the [unnamed] is a ???????. (no words to describe)

I will first go over the environmental, ballistic, and mathematical aspects behind the shot.

After reviewing videos of the incident from various angles and using GPS data, it was determined that the shot was fired from a distance of 141 yards. Charlie's tent was located just a few inches from the wall of the building behind him. The videos indicate that his tent measures approximately 9x9 feet, with his chair positioned near the center, making him about 4 feet away from the back wall. The [unnamed] was situated right at the edge of the building, as can be seen in the video taken from the ground. The distance from the [unnamed] to Charlie was 141 yards.

Postion of [unnamed] and Charlie Kirk. Distance of 141 yards.

location of [unnamed]

Location of Charlie Kirk

Location - Utah Valley University

Date/Time - (Shot) Sep. 10, 12:23 pm MT

Temp - 81ºF

29.7 inhg

Humity - 22%

Wind - 195º @ 13 mph

Distance 141 yards

Lat - 40º N

Charlie Kirk - Facing 71º E

[Unnamed] Facing 230º SW

Rifle/Caliber - Mauser 30.06

Bullet (weight/speed) - Unconfirmed

Bullet Drop - Accounting for gravity

Two of the most popular bullets for a 30.06 are 150 grain (2900 fps) and 180 grain (2700 fps). Based on data from a 180 bullet, the bullet would drop from a 100-yard zero, .7" or 1/4 MOA at 141 yards. For a shot at 141 yards, I would argue that, unless you were shooting for the utmost precision, this would not need to be accounted for.

Wind

In the long-range community, we will refer to our rifles as a specific MPH gun. Meaning, with a certain mph at a given distance, the wind will push our bullet 1/100 of our distance in Mils. An example of this is a 30.06 with a 180 geain bullet is likely to be a 6 MPH gun, and at 600 yards, a 6 MPH full value (3 - 9 o'clock) wind would push the bullet .6 mils or 12.96".

After studying the location of the shooting, with the shot being taken at 141 yards, the math indicates that [unnamed] was facing 230º SW with the wind from 195º, resulting in a 35º angle (11:00) wind at a speed of up to 13 mph. To calculate a 13 mph wind from 11 o'clock, we need to know the sin of a 35º angle, which is .57. This gives us a half-value wind. To put it in layman's terms, the wind has half the effect on the bullet. At this angle, a 13 mph wind has the same effect as a 6 mph full-value wind.

The math looks like this:

Formula - wind (mph) / 1/1000 g1 BC x 1/1000 dist x sine = Mils

13/6x.141x.5=0.153 Mils or .75 inch

On September 10, 2025, the day Charlie Kirk was shot, the maximum recorded wind speed at his location was 13 mph. However, this was not nesesearly the wind speed at the time the shot was taken by [unnamed]. The maximum wind deflection was only 0.75 inches. To put this into perspective, a .30-06 bullet has a diameter of .308 inches. Therefore, the wind would only move the bullet the equivalent of the width of two .30-06 bullets. At this distance, this minor wind effect would not need to be adjusted for unless one were a precision shooter.

This shot was extremely close, and without adjustments, the bullet would only have a deviation of 0.7 inches low and a maximum of 0.75 inches to the right.

Shooting a rifle at a distance, even at 141 yards, involves many factors, with the fundamentals of marksmanship being the most important. If a shooter has poor fundamentals, the cone of fire expands significantly, leading to a considerable decrease in accuracy. For example, a 2-inch group at 200 yards (1 MOA) is considered accurate, but this can easily open up to well over 12 inches with improper technique.

There are many theories about where the bullet impacted Mr. Kirk. At the time of this writing, it is most commonly believed that he was shot in the neck; however, video evidence suggests that he may have been hit in the upper chest/collarbone area. The bullet could have been deflected off his suspected body armor, striking his neck and traveling into his head. Another theory is that the bullet ricocheted off his collarbone and into his neck, or possibly off an object like a table. As of now, we do not have definitive answers and will need to wait for information from his security team regarding his use of body armor, as well as the coroner's report on the bullet's trajectory after it struck Mr. Kirk.

It's in my professional opinion that the [unnamed] had minimal experience with shooting. He is in no way highly trained or an expert at shooting a rifle, and very likely no experience with rifles. I draw this conclusion from the pictures online of the rifle that was supposedly recovered from the bushes at the site of the incident.

Rifle that was recovered

It is obvious from the picture above the the scope was mounted by someone who has no clue how to properly mound a scope.

"It is an easy shot for someone even with minimal training," said Scott Sweetow, a firearms expert and a retired senior official in the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives.

"The Mauser 98 doesn't require an expert to be accurate at that range", according to Brandon Webb, a former Navy SEALs head sniper instructor and editor at the military lifestyle outlet SOFREP.

To Charlie Kirk,

may you rest in peace.

To his friends and family,

may God bless you and fill your hearts with peace and love.

To America,  

We will continue to honor his memory. It is time to stand up against any radical ideology, whether from the left or the right. We are all united, regardless of race, creed, or religion. Our differences should bring us together, not drive us apart.

This blog is to explain the details of the supposed shot with the information available at the time of this writing. There are more questions than answers.

The Overwatch